Market Indicators
Essential metrics, signals, and data sources for informed metal trading decisions
Indicator Framework
Signal future price moves 1-6 months ahead. Use for positioning and early entries. Examples: PMI, central bank policy, inventory trends.
Move with current prices. Confirm trends but don't predict. Examples: Current production data, spot prices, open interest.
Confirm past trends but slow to change. Examples: Corporate earnings, GDP revisions, annual mine production.
Precious Metals Indicators
Gold, silver, platinum driven by monetary policy, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Leading Indicators
Real Interest Rates
Leading 2-4 moFormula: Nominal 10-year yield - inflation expectations. Negative rates = bullish for gold.
2026 Context:
- • 10-year Treasury: 4.2%
- • Inflation expectations: 3.8%
- • Real rate: +0.4% (slightly positive = headwind for gold)
- • Historical: Gold peaks when real rates < -1%
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Real rates falling: Buy gold/silver
- ✗ Real rates rising above 1%: Reduce exposure
- ⚠ Rapid changes: Major trend shifts coming
Data Source:
US Treasury (treasury.gov), FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org), Bloomberg WIRP
Central Bank Purchases
Leading 3-6 moOfficial sector gold buying drives long-term trends. Record 2026 purchases.
2026 Purchases:
- • Total: 1,200+ tonnes (vs. 800t avg 2010s)
- • China: 450t (dedollarization strategy)
- • India: 200t, Turkey: 150t, Poland: 100t
- • Represents 25% of annual mine supply
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Purchases >1,000t annually: Strong bull market support
- ✓ China accelerating: Major trend (they signal policy)
- ⚠ Sudden slowdown: Potential top forming
Data Source:
World Gold Council (gold.org), IMF IFS, Central bank websites (quarterly reports)
USD Strength (DXY Index)
Leading 1-2 moInverse correlation: Weak dollar = higher gold prices. DXY tracks USD vs. basket of currencies.
2026 Levels:
- • DXY: 102 (neutral, down from 114 peak in 2022)
- • Gold correlation: -0.65 (strong negative)
- • Key levels: Support 98, Resistance 108
How to Interpret:
- ✓ DXY breaking below 100: Very bullish for gold
- ✗ DXY above 110: Headwind for precious metals
- ⚠ Correlation breakdown: Risk-off event (both rise)
Data Source:
TradingView (DXY chart), Bloomberg, Investing.com, MarketWatch
Geopolitical Tension Indexes
CoincidentQuantify global uncertainty. Spikes drive safe-haven demand for gold/silver.
Key Indexes (2026):
- • VIX (volatility): 22 (elevated, >20 = uncertain)
- • GPR Index: 185 (high, Russia/China tensions)
- • EPU Index: 230 (economic policy uncertainty)
- • All well above 2010s averages
How to Interpret:
- ✓ GPR spike >200: Buy gold immediately (typically 5-15% rally)
- ✓ VIX >30: Flight to safety benefits PMs
- ⚠ Prolonged high readings: New normal, less reactive
Data Source:
CBOE (VIX), PolicyUncertainty.com (EPU), IMF (GPR), Haver Analytics
Coincident/Lagging Indicators
ETF Holdings (GLD, SLV, PSLV)
CoincidentPhysical metal held by ETFs. Inflows = bullish sentiment, outflows = bearish.
2026 Holdings:
- • GLD: 26M oz (near record highs)
- • SLV: 550M oz (up 15% YoY)
- • PSLV premium to NAV: +3.2% (high demand)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ 5-day inflow >50 tonnes (GLD): Trend strengthening
- ✗ Sustained outflows >100t: Trend reversal possible
- ⚠ Holdings at ATH + price stall: Potential exhaustion
Data Source:
ETF provider websites (daily updates), Bloomberg, Sprott.com
COMEX Futures Open Interest
CoincidentTotal contracts open. Rising OI + rising price = healthy trend. Falling OI = weakening.
2026 Levels:
- • Gold OI: 480,000 contracts (48M oz)
- • Silver OI: 180,000 contracts (900M oz)
- • COT: Large specs net long gold (bullish)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ OI + price both rising: Strong trend continuation
- ✗ OI falling, price rising: Weak rally (short covering)
- ⚠ Extreme COT positioning: Contrarian reversal signal
Data Source:
CME Group (cmegroup.com), CFTC COT reports (Fridays), COT-report.com
Inflation Expectations (Breakeven)
Leading 3-6 mo5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates. Gold is inflation hedge.
2026 Breakevens:
- • 5-year: 2.8% (vs. 2% Fed target)
- • 10-year: 3.1% (elevated, secular shift)
- • Rising trend since 2021 supports gold
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Breakevens >3%: Very bullish for gold
- ✓ Rising from low levels: Early bull market signal
- ✗ Falling below 2%: Deflationary fears, sell gold
Data Source:
FRED (T5YIE, T10YIE series), Bloomberg USGGBE05/10, US Treasury TIPs
Gold/Silver Ratio
TacticalOunces of silver to buy 1 oz gold. Mean reversion indicator.
2026 Ratio:
- • Current: 52.5 ($4,620 ÷ $88)
- • 50-year average: 65
- • Extremes: 120 (2020 panic), 30 (1980, 2011 peaks)
- • Below average = silver outperforming
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Ratio >80: Buy silver (undervalued vs. gold)
- ✓ Ratio <45: Sell silver, buy gold (silver expensive)
- ⚠ Trending: Don't fight it, wait for extreme (>90 or <40)
Data Source:
TradingView (XAU/XAG), Kitco.com, BullionVault, SilverCharts.com
Industrial Metals Indicators
Copper, aluminum, zinc driven by economic growth, infrastructure spending, and manufacturing activity.
China Industrial Production
Leading 1-3 moChina = 50%+ of global metal demand. Their production data predicts price moves.
2026 Status:
- • IP Growth: +5.2% YoY (moderate)
- • Fixed asset investment: +4.8% (slowing)
- • Property starts: -15% (major drag)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ IP >6%: Bullish for copper, aluminum
- ✗ IP <3%: Bearish, reduce exposure
- ⚠ Property data key: 30% of copper demand
Data Source:
National Bureau of Statistics China (stats.gov.cn), Trading Economics, CEIC
Manufacturing PMI (Global)
Leading 2-4 moPurchasing Managers Index. >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction. Best leading indicator.
2026 Readings:
- • China PMI: 50.8 (barely expanding)
- • US ISM: 48.2 (contracting)
- • Eurozone: 46.1 (deep contraction)
- • Global composite: 49.5 (weak)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ China PMI >51 + rising: Strong buy signal
- ✗ US + China both <50: Major bearish
- ⚠ New orders sub-index most predictive
Data Source:
ISM (US), Caixin (China), Markit Economics, Trading Economics
Construction Activity
Leading 2-5 moConstruction = 40% of copper, 30% of aluminum demand. Leading indicator of demand.
2026 Data:
- • US housing starts: 1.45M (stable)
- • China property: -15% YoY (crisis)
- • EU construction PMI: 44 (contraction)
- • Infrastructure spending: +8% globally (offset)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ US starts >1.5M: Bullish copper/aluminum
- ✗ China property <-20%: Major headwind
- ⚠ Permits lead starts by 1-2 months
Data Source:
US Census (construction.gov), China NBS, Eurostat, OECD Stats
LME Inventory Levels
CoincidentPhysical metal in LME warehouses. Low inventory = tight supply = bullish.
2026 Levels:
- • Copper: 85,000t (critically low, <5 days consumption)
- • Aluminum: 450,000t (low, 7 days)
- • Zinc: 210,000t (moderate)
- • Nickel: 55,000t (tight after Russia sanctions)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Copper <100kt: Extreme tightness, buy
- ✓ Falling inventories + rising price: Powerful trend
- ✗ Inventories >500kt (Cu): Oversupply, bearish
Data Source:
LME.com (daily reports), Bloomberg LMCA/LMAL/etc., MetalBulletin
Mine Disruption Reports
CoincidentStrikes, accidents, floods, political issues. Immediate price impact when significant.
2026 Major Events:
- • Chilean copper mines: Water restrictions (-8% output)
- • DRC cobalt: Political instability (-15%)
- • Russian nickel: Sanctions (750kt at risk)
- • Peru: Social unrest impacting zinc/copper
How to Interpret:
- ✓ >5% global supply impacted: Buy immediately
- ✓ Major producer (BHP, Freeport): Significant
- ⚠ Most resolve quickly, fade moves after 48h
Data Source:
Reuters Metals, Bloomberg, MinEx Consulting, FastMarkets, Twitter/X (real-time)
Capacity Utilization (US/EU)
Leading 1-3 mo% of factory capacity in use. High utilization = strong demand, rising metal consumption.
2026 Levels:
- • US manufacturing: 77.2% (below 80% peak threshold)
- • EU: 72% (low, recession territory)
- • Metals-intensive industries: 74% (weak)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ >80%: Bottlenecks forming, buy metals
- ✗ <75%: Slack in system, bearish
- ⚠ Rising from trough: Early cycle signal
Data Source:
Federal Reserve (G.17 release), FRED, Eurostat, OECD
Rare Earth & Battery Metals Indicators
Lithium, cobalt, nickel, REEs driven by EV adoption, renewable energy, and China export policy.
Global EV Sales
Leading 3-6 moElectric vehicle sales drive 70-80% of lithium, nickel, cobalt demand.
2026 Sales:
- • Global: 21M EVs (+25% YoY)
- • China: 11M (52% of global)
- • Europe: 5.2M, US: 2.8M
- • Penetration: 23% of total auto sales
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Growth >20%: Very bullish lithium/nickel
- ✗ Growth <10%: Demand slowdown, sell
- ⚠ Watch China monthly data (leads global by 2mo)
Data Source:
IEA Global EV Outlook, EV-volumes.com, CAAM (China), InsideEVs
Renewable Energy Investment
Leading 6-12 moSolar/wind installations drive REE demand (magnets), copper (wiring), silver (solar panels).
2026 Investment:
- • Global: $620B (+18% YoY)
- • Solar capacity adds: 450 GW
- • Wind: 140 GW (offshore +35%)
- • Storage (batteries): 85 GWh
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Investment >$500B: Structural bull market for REEs
- ✓ Policy changes (IRA, EU Green Deal): Step changes
- ✗ Subsidy cuts: Immediate negative
Data Source:
IEA World Energy Investment, BloombergNEF, IRENA, REN21
Battery Production Capacity
Leading 6-12 moGigafactory announcements and capacity expansions signal future lithium/nickel demand.
2026 Capacity:
- • Global: 2,400 GWh (vs. 1,800 actual production)
- • China: 1,500 GWh (62% of global)
- • New announcements: 850 GWh by 2028
- • Utilization: 75% (overcapacity easing)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Utilization >85%: Tightness, buy materials
- ✗ New capacity >demand growth: Oversupply risk
- ⚠ 12-18mo lag from announcement to production
Data Source:
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, BloombergNEF, SNE Research, Adamas Intelligence
China Export Quotas (REEs)
CoincidentChina controls 70%+ of REE supply. Export restrictions = immediate price spikes.
2026 Status:
- • Quotas: 180,000 tonnes REO (tight)
- • Recent cuts: -15% YoY (geopolitical tool)
- • Magnets export ban: Selective (defense applications)
- • Processing ban: Restricts tech transfer
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Any export restrictions: Buy REE stocks immediately
- ✓ Quota announcements: Semi-annual (June/Dec)
- ⚠ Black market prices often 20-30% above official
Data Source:
Ministry of Commerce China, Asian Metal, Argus Rare Earths, Reuters
Lithium Carbonate Price (China)
CoincidentSpot pricing for battery-grade lithium. Highly volatile, reflects real-time supply/demand.
2026 Price:
- • Current: $12,500/tonne (down 80% from $82k peak in late 2022)
- • Margin: Barely profitable at $10-12k
- • Market: Transitioning from glut to balance
- • Forecast: $18-25k by late 2026 (deficit forming)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Price <$15k: Accumulate miners (low valuation)
- ✗ Price >$60k: Bubble territory, sell rallies
- ⚠ Weekly volatility 10-20% common
Data Source:
Fastmarkets, Asian Metal, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Shanghai Metals Market
Battery Chemistry Trends
Leading 12-24 moShift from NMC to LFP batteries reduces nickel/cobalt demand, increases lithium.
2026 Mix:
- • LFP (lithium iron phosphate): 45% (up from 30% in 2023)
- • NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt): 40% (declining)
- • NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum): 10%
- • Solid-state: <1% (2028+ commercial)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ LFP share rising: Bullish lithium, bearish nickel/cobalt
- ✓ High-nickel (NMC 811) adoption: Bullish nickel
- ⚠ Tech shifts take 18-36mo to impact demand
Data Source:
BloombergNEF, SNE Research, Adamas Intelligence, company earnings calls
Platinum Group Metals (PGM) Indicators
Palladium, platinum, rhodium driven by auto production, emissions regulations, and South Africa supply.
Global Auto Production
Leading 2-4 mo80% of palladium, 40% of platinum used in catalytic converters. Auto production = PGM demand.
2026 Production:
- • Total: 86M vehicles (-2% YoY, EV transition)
- • ICE vehicles: 66M (declining 5-8% annually)
- • China: 28M, US: 11M, EU: 15M
- • PGM intensity per vehicle rising (stricter emissions)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ ICE production stable: Supports palladium
- ✗ EV penetration >30%: Long-term bearish PGMs
- ⚠ Watch China monthly data (CAAM releases)
Data Source:
OICA (oica.net), IHS Markit, CAAM (China), Wards Auto
ICE vs EV Mix
Leading 6-12 moEV adoption rate determines long-term PGM demand trajectory. Critical structural indicator.
2026 Split:
- • BEV (pure electric): 18% of sales
- • PHEV (plug-in hybrid): 5% (still use PGMs)
- • ICE (gasoline/diesel): 77% (declining)
- • Crossover point: 2030-2032 (EVs >50%)
How to Interpret:
- ✗ EV share accelerating: Structural bear for Pd/Pt
- ✓ EV slowdown (2026 trend): Short-term bullish
- ⚠ PHEVs bridge gap, still use 50% PGMs vs. ICE
Data Source:
IEA Global EV Outlook, EV-volumes.com, BloombergNEF, Rho Motion
Emissions Regulations
Leading 12-24 moStricter standards (Euro 7, China 7) increase PGM loading per vehicle, offsetting volume decline.
2026 Regulations:
- • Euro 7: Delayed to 2028 (auto industry lobbying)
- • China 7: Phased rollout 2026-2028
- • US Tier 3: Fully implemented
- • PGM intensity: +15-25% vs. 2020 standards
How to Interpret:
- ✓ New regulations: 12-18mo lead time, accumulate before
- ✓ Delays (Euro 7): Short-term bearish
- ⚠ Platinum substitution for palladium ongoing
Data Source:
EPA.gov, European Commission, China MEE, Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report
South Africa Supply Risks
CoincidentSouth Africa = 70% palladium, 75% platinum supply. Political/operational risks = price volatility.
2026 Risks:
- • Power outages (load shedding): 6-8 hours daily
- • Labor strikes: Q2 annual wage negotiations
- • Mine closures: 15% of high-cost capacity uneconomic
- • Production: -5% YoY (structural decline)
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Strike announcements: Buy PGMs immediately (10-30% moves)
- ✓ Load shedding >Stage 4: Sustained bullish
- ✗ Strike resolutions: Fade moves quickly
Data Source:
Minerals Council SA, Anglo American, Sibanye, Impala Platinum (quarterly reports), Reuters
Russia Supply (Nornickel)
High RiskRussia = 25% palladium, 10% platinum. Sanctions risk creates extreme volatility.
2026 Status:
- • Production: 2.6M oz Pd, 600k oz Pt (normal)
- • Sanctions: Indirect (finance, tech) but not metal exports yet
- • Risk: Secondary sanctions could block 25% of supply
- • Inventories: Russia rumored to hold 1-2 years of stockpiles
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Sanctions escalation headlines: Buy PGMs (panic premium)
- ⚠ China/India providing sanctions workarounds (backdoor supply)
- ✗ Peace rumors: Immediate sell-off risk
Data Source:
Nornickel (nornickel.com), Reuters, Bloomberg, US Treasury (sanctions updates)
Palladium/Platinum Ratio
TacticalPrice ratio between the two metals. Indicates substitution dynamics and relative value.
2026 Ratio:
- • Current: 0.65 (Pd $900-1,500, Pt $1,550)
- • Historical: Pd typically premium to Pt (1.2-2.5x)
- • Flip: Platinum now more expensive (first time since 2018)
- • Driver: EV transition destroying palladium demand
How to Interpret:
- ✓ Ratio <0.8: Palladium cheap, buy vs. platinum
- ✓ Substitution: Auto makers switching to Pt (cost savings)
- ⚠ Structural shift: Ratio may stay inverted through 2020s
Data Source:
TradingView, Kitco.com, Johnson Matthey, Bloomberg XPTUSD/XPDUSD
Essential Data Sources Directory
Bookmark these for daily/weekly monitoring
Free Sources
- • FRED (Federal Reserve): fred.stlouisfed.org - Economic indicators, rates
- • Trading Economics: tradingeconomics.com - PMI, GDP, global data
- • LME: lme.com - Inventory, prices, warehouse stocks
- • CME Group: cmegroup.com - Futures prices, OI, volume
- • World Gold Council: gold.org - Central bank buying, ETF flows
- • Kitco: kitco.com - Real-time PM prices, news
- • TradingView: tradingview.com - Charts, technical analysis
- • Investing.com: investing.com - Multi-asset prices, calendar
Government/Official
- • US Census: census.gov - Construction, trade data
- • China NBS: stats.gov.cn - Industrial production, PMI
- • IEA: iea.org - Energy, EV, critical minerals
- • USGS: usgs.gov - Mine production, reserves
- • US Treasury: treasury.gov - Yields, auction data
- • CFTC: cftc.gov - COT reports (Fridays 3:30pm ET)
- • ISM: ismworld.org - US Manufacturing PMI
- • Eurostat: ec.europa.eu/eurostat - EU economic data
Premium/Paid (Best)
- • Bloomberg Terminal: $2k/mo - Best all-in-one, real-time
- • Fastmarkets: fastmarkets.com - Price assessments, lithium, REEs
- • BloombergNEF: about.bnef.com - Battery metals, EVs, renewables
- • Wood Mackenzie: woodmac.com - Supply/demand models, forecasts
- • Benchmark Minerals: benchmarkminerals.com - Battery supply chain
- • CRU Group: crugroup.com - Base metals, steel analysis
- • Johnson Matthey: matthey.com - Annual PGM market report (free!)
- • S&P Global: spglobal.com - Platts price assessments
Monitoring Routine Recommendation
Daily (Pre-Market)
- • LME/COMEX prices & inventory
- • China overnight data (if released)
- • USD Index (DXY)
- • VIX level
- • News scan (Reuters Metals, Bloomberg)
Weekly
- • CFTC COT report (Fridays)
- • ETF holdings (GLD, SLV, COPX)
- • China steel production
- • Lithium spot prices (Fastmarkets)
- • Jobless claims (Thu)
Monthly
- • PMI releases (1st business day)
- • China auto production (CAAM)
- • US construction data (mid-month)
- • Central bank meetings (Fed, ECB, PBOC)
- • Mine production reports
Quarterly
- • GDP reports (major economies)
- • Miner earnings calls (guidance)
- • EV sales reports (IEA)
- • Central bank gold purchases (WGC)
- • Rebalance portfolio allocations